Cotality’s national home value index rose 0.3% in April 2026, the slowest pace of growth since January 2025, just ahead of last year’s rate-cutting cycle. That is a real slowdown. It is not, however, a uniform one. Understanding the difference between those two things is what determines whether you act sensibly or reactively in this market.
Two cities are pulling the national figure down
The national result was dragged lower by Sydney and Melbourne, where values fell 0.6% over the month. Sydney home values are now 1.0% below their November peak, while Melbourne values are 1.9% below their November 2025 cyclical high.
Those are real declines. They are also the product of specific conditions: rising advertised stock, falling auction clearance rates, and serviceability pressure at the upper end of the market. They do not describe what is happening in Perth or Adelaide.
Perth’s growth is clearly losing steam, but the market remains strong. Values rose 2.1% in April, adding more than $21,000 to the median dwelling value.
Same month. Same national index. Materially different outcomes.
The price tier split is now visible in every capital
This is the detail that tends to get lost in the headline. The market is not just splitting by city. It is splitting within cities, across the price spectrum.
Every capital city is recording stronger growth in the lower quartile, as demand concentrates where credit availability and first home buyer incentives play a key role.
The largest difference between upper and lower quartile value growth is in Sydney, where lower-tier house values are up 2.9% year-to-date compared with a 3.3% fall across the most expensive quarter of the market.
That is a 6.2 percentage point spread within one city over four months. Entry-level stock is attracting genuine competition from first home buyers, investors, and upgraders. Premium stock is absorbing the full weight of serviceability constraints. A comparable sale from one end of that spectrum tells you almost nothing about value at the other end.
Buyer demand is measurably softer
The price data reflects something real happening in transaction volumes.
Estimates of capital city home sales over the past three months were 5.4% lower than a year ago and 7.4% below the previous five-year average. Advertised stock levels have also lifted in the weakest markets, sitting 9.4% above the five-year average in Sydney and 2.2% above average in Melbourne.
Auction clearance rates have held below 55% since the last week of March. When clearance rates sit consistently below that threshold, vendors and buyers are not meeting on price. That plays out in negotiation outcomes and, eventually, in comparable sales data.
Regional markets are holding up… for now
Regional markets have been more resilient amid the broader slowdown, supported by relatively lower values and above-average internal migration. Over the first four months of the year, the combined regionals index rose 4.2% versus a 1.8% lift across the combined capitals.
Regional outperformance is not a surprise in this part of the cycle. Affordability is less constrained, and the demographics driving internal migration have not reversed. But momentum is easing, with the 0.9% monthly rise in April being the smallest increase in nine months.
What this means if you have a valuation requirement
A market slowing at different rates across different cities, price tiers, and property types creates specific challenges for anyone relying on a valuation right now, whether for CGT purposes, a deceased estate, a family law matter, or finance.
The comparable sales that supported a valuation six months ago may no longer reflect current conditions in Sydney or Melbourne. Conversely, a Canberra mid-market assessment or a regional NSW valuation operates in a different context entirely.
New dwelling construction continues to undershoot underlying demand, and this gap could widen through the year as higher oil and fuel prices add to construction costs. Labour market conditions also remain tight, supporting income security and limiting the risk of forced selling. These structural factors put a floor under values even as conditions soften.
The outlook points to a further loss of momentum rather than a material correction. Housing market outcomes are likely to remain highly diverse, with conditions varying markedly by price point and region as 2026 progresses.
That is precisely why a site-specific valuation, conducted by a qualified valuer with current market knowledge, matters more in this environment than it did twelve months ago.
If you have a valuation requirement across NSW, ACT, or VIC, contact Vanguard Valuations for a direct conversation with a qualified valuer.
